2012: The End of the Publishing Industry as We Know it

By Michael Drew - Sep 02 , 2010

A Mayan Myth predicts that the end of the world will occur on December 12 2012.

While I’m not certain this is true, I do believe that December 12, 2012, will mark the end of the publishing world as we know it.

I’ve been a maverick in the book industry for more then a decade. I make people uncomfortable. I speak the truth. Hearing about change (and making change) is always tough, especially in an industry that, let’s face it, hasn’t changed much since Johannes Gutenberg invented the printing press in 1440.

Last summer, I proclaimed “Book Publishing 2.0 Is Now.”

At Book Expo America in 2009 and 2010 I spent some time ranting at publishers, predicting what the future of publishing would look like, and suggesting what I would do if I were a publisher today looking to preserve both reputation and business. Few listened.

But this time, unlike my attempts to reform the industry in years past, publishers actually flocked to me like flies to honey. But they didn’t like what I had to say.

Even today many of my friends among big and midsized New York-based publishers listen to me — but they aren’t willing to accept my news.

Here’s the headline: Traditional Book Publishing is DEAD.

I’m not the only one who’s been telling this story over the last couple of years.

For example:

• On what became known as publishing’s Black Tuesday, in December 2008 Random House completely reorganized and Simon & Schuster laid off a large part of its staff.
• Last year, Steven Covey and his Go digital publishing company made an exclusive deal with Amazon.com to have Amazon sell two of his bestsellers – “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People” and “Principle-Centered Leadership” — solely in digital form.
• Recently, best-selling author Seth Godin announced he’s “Moving On” and will no longer publishing with traditional publishers following the publication of “Linchpin.” (Also read his follow-up interview on Galley Cat.)
• And Mitch Joel is correct when he says, “This is a lot bigger then Seth Godin…”  It’s about transparency and talking directly with consumers.
• It used to be that 20,000 to 30,000 books were published a year. In 2009, there were 760,000 new books published. That’s more than a two thousand percent increase. Staggering, isn’t it? (Download Bowker’s 2009 Book Industry Essential Facts)
• Yet amid this torrent of product, B&N is losing money and even this titan of brick-and-mortar bookselling sees the writing on the wall regarding the future of traditional publishing (and book-buying)
• And of course you’ve heard of big losses at Borders, major executive turnover there and job losses at both the corporate level and at individual stores

I could go on and on with the doom-and-gloom of an industry whose only good news is digital publishing. Which, of course, scares traditional publishers to death.

So let me tell you what I’ve been telling publishers for the last two years, that they, and you, need to WAKE UP and hear.

By the end of 2012 the dynamics in publishing and the economy will have shifted so much that traditional publishers will either be acquiring emerging publishing technology and evolving — or going out of business.

• By the end of 2012, 50% or more of all books will be sold in a digital or electronic format.
• By the end of 2015, 80% or more of all books will be sold in digital or electronic format
• By the end of 2015, “new” digital books will be sold at an average of $0.99 or less

Publishers need to realize that they are on the same path the music industry has been on for a decade. They need to avoid making the same mistakes record companies made and instead focus on a more “open” source form of publishing the recognizes the money isn’t in the book content but what that content leads to.

We should look to Matt Mullenweg, founder of WordPress.com and WordPress.org, and to a younger generation for the future of our business and publishing models. It is rumored that Matt turned down a $200 million offer to buy WordPress. At the recent Engage Today 2010 conference in Calgary, Canada, Matt neither confirmed nor denied this, but he did say that had he turned down an offer of $200 million, it would have been because he was concerned the buyer might take his open-source publishing model and turn it into a closed-source publishing model.

The future of publishing is open source, free content leading into premium content.

I know I’ve come across as a doomsayer, but trust me when I say that I really believe that these are exciting times. Because once again, content is what counts. For so long book publishing was all about marketing: those with the money were those who succeeded. Good content was the exception, not the rule.

The Internet, the iPad, the Kindle, the smartphone and other such devices have leveled the playing field.

Online content is king, as we have already begun to see with e-books and digital books. Digital books will be judged by their content, rightfully so, and the long-tail effect will result in more content actually being read and consumed then is currently done with traditionally bound books.

Again, I am thrilled to be part of this exciting age for books and for content. If publishers would stop flogging their dead horse and really identify what they had to offer (and how to offer it), they too would be excited.

I’m looking forward to December 12, 2012, the Death of the Print Book Industry. Who’d like to participate in a funeral to celebrate this great industry’s death, and to proclaim the birth of a new one?